NBC Evening News for Sunday, May 24, 1981
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(Studio) Much of United States Mideast policy noted based on assumption that USSR needs region's oil.
REPORTER: Jane Pauley
(DC) CIA's prediction 4 years ago with regard to anticipated USSR oil imports recalled; conclusion said based on possibility of USSR , especially after its invasion of Afghanistan, trying to seize Persian Gulf. Reagan administration said beginning to increase United States military strength in region due to CIA analysis; agency said revising estimates upward. Details of current USSR oil product outlined on screen, discussed; Japan and United States noted helping USSR explore new fields in Sakhalin Island. [Economist professor Marshall GOLDMAN - thinks USSR is behind technologically; elaborates.] Goldman's recent study, "The Enigma of Soviet Petroleum: Half-Empty or Half-Full?", said challenging earlier official estimates; details given. [GOLDMAN - considers USSR interested in making mischief in Mideast; cites Ethiopia as example] Pentagon reported insisting that USSR remains a threat to Persian Gulf oil; details given.
REPORTER: Marvin Kalb